PANAMA / RankWire.AI / – The Panama Canal might see its daily vessel count reduced to around 29 ships in February or March 2027 if drought conditions persist, according to its new administrator. Ilya Espino de Marotta assumed her role on Sept. 7 and mentioned this potential reduction amid El Niño’s impact on reservoir water levels. The canal’s operation depends on freshwater from lakes fed by rainfall, which is currently below expectations. The Panama Canal Authority has already started implementing phased capacity reductions due to insufficient precipitation across the watershed.
As of Sept. 3, the canal provided nine daily slots for Neopanamax ships and 25 for Panamax vessels, totaling 34 slots. Beginning Sept. 15, the availability for Panamax ships will decrease to 23 slots, lowering the overall daily capacity to 32. These cutbacks are a response to reduced rainfall during Panama’s wet season and decreased inflow into the watershed. Water conservation strategies and stricter booking controls are being implemented while Gatun Lake and other water sources are closely monitored.
During fiscal 2026, the canal averaged 35 transits per day up to June 30, based on official operational figures. From October to June, it recorded 10,726 transits, reflecting a 5.2% increase compared to the same period the previous year. These numbers were recorded before recent rainfall shortages prompted tighter operational limits. The canal connects the Atlantic and Pacific oceans and is crucial for global trade, handling containers, energy shipments, bulk commodities, and other cargo types.
Water shortages lead to transit capacity restrictions
The operation of the canal’s locks depends on freshwater from Gatun Lake and Alhajuela Lake to lift and lower ships during transit. Reservoir levels directly influence how many vessels can pass through during extended dry spells. During the severe 2023 drought, daily transits dropped to 22 in December as Gatun Lake’s levels fell to unusually low points. Later, capacity was increased following rainfall and conservation efforts that stabilized water supplies for both canal operations and public needs.
In addition, vessel draft limits have been modified as part of ongoing water management. On Sept. 4, authorities deferred a planned reduction of the Neopanamax maximum draft to 47.5 feet. The current 48-foot limit remains in effect following evaluations of Gatun Lake’s water levels and updated weather forecasts. Draft limits restrict how deeply ships can sit in the water, which is critical for heavier cargo loads and operational constraints.
Changes in booking procedures amid capacity reductions
The booking and auction policies have been altered due to shrinking capacity. Auction slots are now organized by cargo type, including gas carriers, bulk ships, container vessels, and tankers. When other conditions are similar, full container ships with higher capacities are prioritized for Neopanamax slots. Authorities have urged vessels without reservations to utilize the booking system since lower capacity can lead to longer wait times. Reserving a transit remains the only method to secure a guaranteed crossing date.
No further order has been issued to reduce transit to 29 ships per day. The administrator indicated this level could be enforced in February or March if the drought persists. Ongoing monitoring of rainfall, watershed inflows, and lake levels continues before additional operational measures are introduced. Also, the canal is progressing with the Río Indio reservoir project, aimed at increasing long-term water storage. This initiative is part of Panama’s strategy to ensure water availability for canal operations and over half of the country’s population.