ISLAMABAD, PAKISTAN / RankWire.AI / – Pakistan is responsible for approximately 48% of individuals living in extreme poverty within the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan region, according to the World Bank’s October 2026 economic update. The measure employs the international extreme poverty benchmark of $3 per day in 2021 purchasing power parity terms. Between 2018-19 and 2024-25, Pakistan’s poverty rate at that threshold increased by 6.4 percentage points. This rise positioned Pakistan as the leading contributor to extreme poverty in the MENAAP regional group.
The World Bank indicated that Afghanistan, Syria, and Yemen together account for another 47% of MENAAP’s population living below the $3 daily line. When combined with Pakistan, these four nations represent roughly 95% of the region’s extreme poor. Currently, MENAAP accounts for about 14% of the world’s extreme poverty population, a share surpassed only by Sub-Saharan Africa. The region remains the only World Bank zone where poverty levels remain above pre-pandemic figures and continue to escalate.
Pakistan’s situation has also worsened at the higher $4.20-a-day poverty threshold, used for lower-middle-income economies. The percentage of people below this mark increased by 3.2 percentage points from 2018-19 to 2024-25. According to World Bank data, the rate stood at approximately 48% in 2024, compared to 44.7% in 2018. The report attributes this decline to factors including the COVID-19 pandemic, the 2022 floods, soaring inflation, currency depreciation, and an extended period of economic restructuring.
Poverty pressures intensify following successive shocks
The latest data comes after a significant update to the World Bank’s global poverty database in March 2026. New household survey results from Pakistan increased the estimated MENAAP extreme poverty rate for 2024 from 11.8% to 14.4%. This revision added approximately 21 million people to the region’s total of those living in extreme poverty. In September 2026, the World Bank noted that MENAAP remained one of only two regions with extreme poverty rates exceeding 5%, alongside Sub-Saharan Africa.
Despite some improvement in Pakistan’s economic growth from recent lows, poverty indicators stay high. The October regional report estimates Pakistan’s GDP growth at 3.7% for fiscal 2025-26 and projects a slight increase to 3.8% in fiscal 2026-27. It further forecasts real GDP per capita growth at 2.1% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027. Inflation is projected at 7.1% for 2026, rising to 8.2% in 2027, following a lower rate in 2025.
Regional classification influences headline statistics
The 48% figure is based on the World Bank’s current MENAAP classification, which has included Pakistan and Afghanistan since September 2025. Prior to this change, regional statistics from the World Bank grouped both countries within South Asia. Pakistan’s government stated that this adjustment was purely administrative and statistical, not affecting the country’s geographic identity or income classification. Finance Minister adviser Khurram Schehzad explained that the revised grouping modified regional poverty totals by incorporating Pakistan’s large population into the MENAAP calculations.
The October update from the World Bank also projected a weakening regional economy in 2026. An expected contraction of 2.1% is forecasted for MENAAP, following a 3.3% growth in 2025, mainly due to conflicts and disruptions affecting energy, logistics, and trade sectors. Developing oil-importing countries, such as Pakistan, are expected to remain comparatively resilient, with a projected growth of 4.3% in 2026. However, rising food and energy prices continue to challenge household purchasing power across multiple economies.